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Unübertreffbarer Weltmeister in alles Disziplinen

Beiträge: 1.337

21.10.2018 10:30
t least one if not more. But remember, you arent just looking for high-scoring games, youre looking for high-scoring close games Antworten

I love the NBA, and I have as long as I can remember. One of my earliest memories is my uncle hoisting me on his shoulders next to the Lakers team bus to meet rookie A.C. Green outside the Seattle Coliseum in 1987. Later that season, I remember my dad pulling over to the side of the road so we could listen to the end of a thrilling Sonics playoff victory over the Rockets.In my teenage years, one of my greatest memories was the weekend spent with my dad painting a giant Sonics mural that spanned the entire length of my bedroom wall -- something my friends still talk about to this day. It was a magical time in the Pacific Northwest, with Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp, George Karl, Detlef, Big Smooth, Kevin Calabro, Sir-Mix-A-Lot and Pearl Jam.All these years later, I still love the NBA -- even without the Sonics -- for all the reasons so many of you do; the intense competition, the incredible talent, the high-flying dunks. But I also love it because of DFS.While every sport holds its own appeal in terms of DFS, the NBA is hard to beat for a number of reasons. Most appealing is how the action doesnt stop, as it does in many of the other sports, because players can accumulate stats on both offense and defense.And unlike baseball and football, basketball doesnt have nearly the same statistical variance on a game-to-game basis, which makes it a more enjoyable DFS experience. You know that LeBron James and Kevin Durant are good for right around 25-30 points on any given night, for example. Compare that to baseball, where paying up for a star like Josh Donaldson or Mike Trout can easily lead to 0-for-5 night with three strikeouts. Or football, where there are less than five reliable running backs left in the league.NBA DFS isnt like that -- the results are more predictable, so it doesnt take hours and hours to create a roster. On many nights, when theres a short slate of games, you may only have to decide between two or three players at certain positions (especially at shooting guard and small forward).Is it simple? No. Is it challenging? You bet it is. But if you ask me, its just another part of the draw -- coming up with strategies, concepts and approaches, based on the matchups and available options each night, that can lead to success and money in your pocket.Whether youre playing in GPPs (big tournaments with thousands of entries) or in cash games (a smaller group of people with a much better chance of winning), here are 10 tips that will help you fall in love with NBA DFS as I have and take your lineup-building to the next level:1. Minutes per gameMore time on the court means added opportunity to accumulate stats, so this is a good starting point. Here are the minutes-per-game leaders from last season. You want players who can be counted on to play over 30 minutes a game, whenever possible. That means players like James Harden, Kyle Lowry and John Wall, just to name a few. Keep in mind, any starter without a suitable backup is often forced to carry a bigger workload, and more minutes mean more opportunity.Its also important to consider whether a game has a good chance of being a blowout. A simple review of the days point spreads (ESPN PickCenter for Insider subscribers) can help with that. If a game gets out of hand, it increases the chances that the best players will spend more time than usual on the bench. This was a problem in Golden State last season, when the Warriors pulled out to big leads and often were able to sit their starters for the entire fourth quarter.Its also important to know which coaches have a tendency to keep their starters on the court, even when the score is lopsided. Tom Thibodeau was famous for that in his years in Chicago, leaving Jimmy Butler (and Luol Deng) in the game even when the contest was well in hand. Thibs is now in Minnesota, which raises the DFS values of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng and the rest of the Timberwolves regulars this season.2. Usage rateSo you know that finding players who play a good portion of the game is important, but how often do they have the ball in their hands while theyre on the court? How often do they use a possession? Thats what usage rate can help you figure out, and its a very useful tool in DFS.Here are the usage rate leaders from last season.As you can see, players like Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins and Harden are not only high-minute players but also high-usage players. So its easy to understand why they are able to put up such big DFS numbers on a nightly basis. Others, like Reggie Jackson and Dennis Schroder, dont get as much fanfare, but their high usage rate gives them the potential for monster statistical games on any given night.Note: Next-level DFS players can delve even deeper into the usage rate stats. The website nyloncalculus.com enables you to filter it down to more specific stats such as scoring usage - the percentage of plays used by a player in terms of scoring attempts (whether from the field or at the free throw line).Whether you use the basic usage rate numbers or the more advanced version, this is something to strongly consider whenever you enter lineups. Its that important. You can also utilize nbawowy.com to see how a players usage rate fluctuates when other players are on or off the court. This is incredibly useful, particularly whenever a key player is injured and you want to find out something like how LaMarcus Aldridges numbers are impacted whenever Pau Gasol is off the court.3. Pace factorThis stat measures the amount of possessions each team uses per game. Last season, the Sacramento Kings led the NBA (102.2) while the Utah Jazz ranked last (93.3). Either style can win NBA games, but as far as youre concerned you want players on teams that consistently play more possessions.Were talking about the Golden State Warriors, the Houston Rockets, the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers.So what happens when a faster-paced team like the Kings plays a slower-paced team like the Jazz? Typically, things average out, so in the example from last season you could expect right around 97-98 possessions to be used by each team in a Kings-Jazz game.That adds a little value to the Jazz players, who can be expected to play around four more possessions than usual, and it also slightly downgrades the Kings players, who can be expected to play around four possessions less than usual.4. Opponent defense versus positionAs good as a player might be (high minutes, high usage, fast-paced team), he might not be worth rostering if hes matched up against a top-notch defender like San Antonios Kawhi Leonard. This is always something to take into consideration.There are several websites that show how well each team defends at every position, and its up to you to find the one that works best for you. One example, 82games.com, shows important stats for every team such as their opponents effective field goal percentage at each position. The Atlanta Hawks, for example, held opposing small forwards to a 45.1 eFG% last season, so thats a team you probably shouldnt have started small forwards against on any night with a full slate of games.5. Injuries equal opportunitiesAny time a starter gets injured and misses time, figure out which reserve(s) will fill in for them and assume a bigger role, because there is no better time to find a bargain in DFS.Salaries dont fluctuate much on a game-to-game basis, so when low-priced reserves are thrust into a starters role, they often remain a top value for several weeks before their price comes up. Its up to you to capitalize on this as much as possible. Remember the way JaMychal Green emerged in Memphis when Zach Randolph missed time last season? He was available at close to the minimum salary for weeks, and thats exactly what were talking about here.I recall a game two seasons back when Brooklyn faced San Antonio and Kevin Garnett sat out, giving Mirza Teletovic a chance to play extended minutes in the Nets short-handed frontcourt. That night, Teletovic went off for 26 points, 15 rebounds and added five 3-pointers, despite being near the minimum price point, and anyone who rostered him had a huge advantage over the competition in GPPs.Injuries are a reality in the six-month grind of the NBAs grueling regular season, and there are sure to be many again in 2016-17. In DFS, look at that as an opportunity to go bargain shopping.6. Pay up at the right positionsA couple years back, this fascinating piece by Bryan Mears at numberfire.com examined the top-scoring nightly NBA DFS lineups through the first few months of the 2014-15 season. The findings were both fascinating and revealing.In a nutshell, the sheer number of high-quality point guards currently in the league makes it advisable to pay up for point guards on most nights. From time to time, values will be out there, but you always have to measure whether a low-priced point guard with a ceiling of 30 points is worth rostering over a high-priced point guard who might put up twice that. Most of the time, it isnt.On many nights its also advisable to roster a cheaper option at shooting guard and/or small forward. The lack of depth at those positions in the NBA leaves many nights when the top-priced small forward is someone like Trevor Ariza and it often makes sense to go cheap there so you can load up elsewhere.Power forward is pretty top-heavy in terms of elite options, while center can range from thin to deep depending on the nights schedule.7. Consider ownership percentage and pick your spots to be a contrarianGoing against the grain can be your ticket to big winnings in GPPs, but you have to be smart about when you apply it.Fading a superstar who ends up having an uncharacteristically poor performance -- say James or Durant -- can give you a leg up on the competition, but only if its on a night when their ownership levels are high.Some nights, its very difficult to roster James and Durant, and the contrarian play might actually be to add both to your roster.One of my favorite approaches is to play the late-night GPPs that include only 2-4 games on the NBA schedule. Many DFS regulars shy away from these contests because less skill is required since there are fewer choices at every position -- leading to many duplicate rosters -- but there is no better time to be a contrarian than in these late-night tourneys.One of my biggest cashes of from the 2014-15 season came when I faded Harden despite him being one of only two or three shooting guards who appeared to be worth rostering. It was the last night before the All-Star break, Hardens ownership was well north of 80 percent, and he shot just 3-for-12 from the field (0-for-7 from 3-point range) and finished with only nine points. It was one of only two games all season when he failed to reach double digits, and it left me well ahead of everyone else who rostered him. Boom!8. Factor in back-to-backsSome players arent impacted much when they play the second game of a back-to-back. Others see their shooting percentage and scoring average take a big dive. And some veterans are all but restricted from playing in the second game of back-to-backs.Wall is a good example of a player whose performance last season was heavily impacted by the amount of rest he had entering the game. He shot just 41.7 percent in the 19 games he played in the second of a back-to-back. That number rose to 42.4 percent with one days rest in between games, and jumped to 45.2 in games when he had two days rest.Make sure you spend a moment and think about how much rest a player has before you roster them. It affects every player differently, but it matters.9. Ride the hot hand (or the cold hand)Certain players are streakier than others, and at time a situation arises where a player steps up into a larger role. The bottom line here is that you should always be aware of the players who are running hot or cold.Players who are in a groove can provide a big boost to your roster, particularly while their price tag remains low. Dwight Powell stepped into extended minutes with the Dallas Mavericks early last season, and he was a great value play at power forward for a good stretch. Omri Casspi had a nice run with the Sacramento Kings for a while in each of the last two seasons. Cole Aldrich was the bargain center to have while with the New York Knicks a few years ago. If you can find players like this who have the hot hand, you can construct a roster of expensive stars and low-priced overachieving role players.Cold players can make a great contrarian play if you believe, for whatever reason (matchups, injuries to others, role changes), that they are ready to bust out and perform to their normal level. If you time it right and roster someone on a night when they bust out of their funk, it can separate you from the pack.10. Utilize Twitter for late injury/lineup changesThere are several sites out there that report updates on players in the hours leading up to tip-off each night, but the best thing you can do is find a good Twitter list of NBA reporters and bloggers.Here is a good one that I created during the 2014-15 season which includes over 200 NBA reporters, bloggers and analysts.Dont be the person stuck with a player who was a late scratch due to flu-like symptoms. Thats as good as throwing money away.Bonus tip No. 11: Chase overtimeI havent seen anyone mention this strategy, and it may seem like a sucker bet, but when it works its a game-changer. Interested? If you prefer GPPs over cash games and are okay with an all-or-nothing approach, then keep reading.Heres the deal -- games that go into overtime provide an extra five minutes of game time, and typically all of those minutes are taken up by starters or key reserves like Will Barton or Jamal Crawford who regularly finish the game on the court. Thats a big deal in GPPs, when every stat matters, and you can take advantage of this. All it takes is some research and a little luck.What you need to do is find games that feature two high-scoring teams that play at a high pace. Some nights there are none of these games, but most nights there is at least one if not more. But remember, you arent just looking for high-scoring games, youre looking for high-scoring close games that have the best chance of going into OT. With that in mind, I like to limit myself to games with a point spread of under three points, since those are the games Vegas expects to be close.Once youve found a game that fits this description, the next step is to stack as many players as you can from the two teams. On FanDuel, for example, you can load up eight of your nine roster spots, since theres a limit of four players from one team. If this game goes to overtime, theres a good chance its going to be a fun night at your house.There you have it -- 10 keys and one bonus tip to help you improve your odds in NBA DFS action this season. Apply as many of these as you can on a nightly basis, and its only a matter of time before you experience the thrill of success. Eden Hazard Jersey .Y. -- Jayna Hefford scored the winning goal Friday as Canada survived a scare with a 4-3 win over Sweden at the Four Nations womens hockey tournament. Gary Cahill Jersey . Parker had 26 points and eight assists and San Antonio beat Toronto 112-99 Monday night. "We won that game because of Tony Parkers aggressiveness," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "His juice; his aggression all night long. http://www.chelseafcproshop.com/Customized/ . He said Tuesday thats a big reason why he is now the new coach of the Tennessee Titans. Whisenhunt said he hit it off quickly with Ruston Webster when interviewing for the job Friday night. 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